Super Bowl Prediction

THE SUPER BOWL

XENA AND TANNER CHEW ON THE SUPER BOWL

Well, the doggies got the NFC Championship right -- pretty much nailing how the game would unwind and the final score.  We didn't fair so well in the AFC game.  The Ravens again surprised a heavy favorite by bringing more physicality and passion to the festivities than did their opponent.

So here is the doggies sense of the big game.  In dispatching the Colts, Broncos, and Patriots -- the Ravens played much more aggressively, physically, and bolder than their opponents.  The Ravens wore down each foe and limited the big plays on offense (Denver's only two explosive plays were special team returns).  The Ravens also continued to be stingy when it mattered --- While the Colts, Broncos, and Pats all ran lots of plays, they were unable to turn those plays into scores often enough and at key junctures in the game.

The Forty-Niners have relied on a surprisingly explosive offense in the playoffs to dispatch the Packers and the Falcons.  In both cases the Niner defense adjusted in the second half to shut down the Packers and the Falcons.  The Packers scored 21 points in the first half and only 10 in the second, including a "garbage time" late TD.  The Niners shut out the Falcons in the second half after the Falcons had scored 24 points in the first half.

If I look at the teams position by position here is what I see:

QB - Slight edge to Niners given Kaepernick's mobility.  I think the Ravens will play him straight up and not do anything special to take away the runs.  Both QB have big arms and have made big plays in the air when they need them.  Both have also showed good poise in coming back from deficits in the last two games.

Running game - Again, a slight edge to the Niners based on the extra dimensions that James and Kaepernick bring to the backfield.  Also, I like the Niner offensive line in the running game against the Raven front seven more than I like the Raven line against the Niner front seven.

Receivers - I think both sides have underrated passing attacks.  I would give the Ravens a slight edge at receiver because after Crabtree the Niners are just a bunch of guys.  Jones, Smith, and Boudin have all played well for the Ravens.

Defensive line - A clear edge for the Niners.

Linebackers - A clear edge for the Niners

DB's - A clear edge for the Niners

The Niners are solid at every defensive position.  The Ravens have been making the plays they have needed on defense.  I think the Niners will ultimately wear the Ravens down with their big, talented offensive line.

Special Teams - slight edge to the Ravens with the suspect confidence of Niner kicking game.  I wouldn't be surprised to see either James (Niners) or Jones (Ravens) make a big play in the return game.

What this all means?  The Ravens won't out physical the Niners like they did the Colts, Broncos, and Pats.  I think Kaepernick may take a series or two to find his happy place -- but that the Niners are the better team and they will get their just reward -- Final SF 31  Ravens 20

NFL Predictions - Conference Championships

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES

XENA AND TANNER CHEW ON THE PLAYOFF GAMES

Ravens@Patriots - In week three the Ravens held New England to 77 yards rushing and rolled up 500 yards of offense as they rallied to beat the Patriots 31-30 at home.  That seems like a long time ago.  Since that time the Patriots have developed a better than average running game and the Ravens have been suspect against the run.  I think the game hinges on whether the Ravens can control the New England ground game.  If they can't, the versatility of the Patriot attack will be too much for the Ravens.  At home, the Patriots will run the Ravens ragged if the Ravens can't make the Pats one dimensional.  So, we will either get a close game like last year where the Ravens control the pace, or the Patriots will  burn the birds off the field.  The Ravens won't give up two special teams scores this week, but they also won't get the deep bomb gifts that the Broncos handed them last week.  Simply put, I think the Patriot offense will be the dominant force on the field and the Raven offense will not be able to make the same kind of big plays that they made to defeat Denver.

Patriots 34-17

Niners@Falcons - My gut tells me that Atlanta will win this game.  The Falcons play much more zone than Green Bay and that will negate some of the big play runs by Kaepernick.  Good passing teams have burned the Niners on occasion.  The key for the Falcons will be to stay aggressive early and to give Matty Ice time to throw.  My head tells me that the Niners will not fall short again.  Some times good young teams need to experience getting close to know what it takes to get over the hump.  My head says the Niner D will make the crucial stops it needs to keep the game close and that the Niners will wear down the Falcons in the second half.  I will go with my head.  Niners 28-23.

  

NFL - Conference Championships - The Best Game that Never was

NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

The Best Game that Never Was

In a little over 24 hours we will know the two teams that will compete in the Super Bowl.  I have ranked the four possible matchups based on my personal sense of "intrigue":

Patriots and Niners

Ravens and Niners

Ravens and Falcons

Patriots and Falcons

The Niners and Pats played already this season.  The Pats rallied from 28 points back to tie the game.  The Niners answered with a big play to claim victory.  A rematch would give us the Golden Boy Brady against the rising star Kaepernick.  We would get the aloof Hoodie against the risk-taking Harbaugh.  We would get the Patriot offensive Machine against the league's most complete defense.  I want to see that.

A Ravens/Niners game would give us the Brother's Harbaugh game we almost saw last year.  The family storyline here would be epic.  The teams play physical, hardnosed football, but the Niners would bring the Kaeprnick wrinkle.

These first two options are very close in my ranking of game sex appeal.  It would be a steep drop to Ravens/Falcons, but the differences in style would be somewhat interesting.  The Patriots and the Falcons have similar features to me. New England is just better and more accomplished. 

I have learned over the years though that the conference championships have their own storylines and sometimes the surprises leave us with unexpected and disappointing matchups.

During the 1985 season the Chicago Bears steamrolled to a 15-1 record.  They started the season 12-0.  The Miami Dolphins ambushed them in a week 13 Monday Night game, 38-24.  Miami preserved the 1972 Dolphin perfect season legacy with the win.  The Bears dominated the NFC playoff shutting out the Giants in the divisional round and the Rams in the conference championship.

The Miami Dolphins won the AFC East and defeated Cleveland in the divisional round of the AFC playoffs.  Miami faced New England at home in the AFC championship.  The Dolphins were the betting and the popular favorite.  All football fans not in New England wanted to see the Bears and the Dolphins in a rematch.  The Dolphins had ruined Chicago's perfect season.  The physical Bears against the finesses Dolphins presented contrasting styles.  Coach Ditka vs Coach Shula would present another contrast:  Ditka brash and frank, Shula the gentlemanly coaching legend.

All Miami had to do was win.  We sometimes forget though that the other team wants to win as well.  The traveling Patriots won their third straight playoff game as they dominated the Dolphins 31-14.  New England rushed for 260 yards and forced six Dolphin turnovers.  I hated the Patriots for ruining the dream game.  Then I hated them more when they played Michal Spinks to Chicago's Mike Tyson in losing the Super Bowl 46-10.

The lesson:  The conference championship games favor the teams that stay in the moment.  The four teams that get this far are all worthy of making it to the Super Bowl.  The teams that best prepare to execute their game against a high quality opponent will get one more game.  As fans it is OK to look ahead.  We risk disappointment though if the favorites on the field are doing the same. 

NFL Recap - Sunday Divisional Round

NFL RECAP – DIVISION ROUND - SUNDAY

The More things Change

The NFL divisional round is over and it is on to the conference championships.  The NFL had many intriguing new story lines this year:

Ø RG3, Russell Wilson, Adrian Peterson and Andrew Luck lead their teams into the playoffs

Ø The 49ers make a mid season QB shift at a time when they were leading their division

Ø The defending SB champion Giants start strong, slump and miss the playoffs

Ø Peyton Manning leads Broncos to #1 AFC seed only to lose in playoffs - again.

Ø Chargers and Cowboys continue to disappoint and miss the playoffs

Ø The Detroit Lions and New Orleans Saints take huge steps - backwards

I could go on and on.  Much happened in the NFL this year.  Yet when all the dust has settled the remaining combatants have a familiar look:

New England will once again host Baltimore in the AFC Championship game.  San Francisco again makes the conference finals and will face the Falcons in Atlanta for the NFC crown.  The NFL season grinds down the pretenders and the playoffs punish those who were not quite ready (Seattle, Indy) sloppy (Denver, Green Bay), have injuries at QB (Washington, Minnesota) or just overmatched (Houston, Cincy).

The Ravens may be the sentimental favorite as Ray Lewis makes his last stand.  The Patriots appear to be playing the best and we hate them because they always are playing the best.  The Falcons we keep counting out and they are still here.  The Niners intrigue us because we see Kaepernick emerging.  Me, I am rooting for a Pats/Niners cage match.

Prospect Theory and the NFL

There is a concept in prospect theory that says people value avoiding loss more than making gains.  A person who views a potential action as exposing himself to risk is less likely to take that action than is a person that sees that action as only creating a gain opportunity.

A simple example of this concept played out at the end of the Ravens/Broncos game and the Hawks/Falcons game.  In Denver the Ravens had just tied the game at 35.  The Broncos had possession at their 20-yard line with two timeouts and 31 seconds remaining.  Peyton Manning took a knee and the Broncos headed to OT where they lost to the Ravens 38-35.

In Atlanta, the Seahawks had just scored to take a 28-27 lead.  Atlanta took possession with 31 seconds to go and two timeouts near their 30-yard line.  Matt Ryan completes two passes and the Falcons use 23 seconds to kick the game-winning 49-yard field goal.

So why didn't the Broncos try to win the game in regulation?  Like the Falcons the Broncos had an all-pro QB capable of moving a team 40 yards in 31 seconds with two timeouts.  The Broncos kicker Matt Praeter is one of the game's best kickers from 50 yards and beyond.  So why did the Broncos settle for overtime?

I submit that the Broncos were more concerned with what could go wrong (loss) in this scenario than they were with gain (winning the game in regulation and avoiding the serendipity of OT).  The Falcons, conversely, had nothing to lose since they were trailing.  They could afford to throw caution to the wind and use the remaining time since they could only gain from this risk.

I don't know what the odds are in these types of situations.  I do wish that NFL coaches made more a study of the statistics of their decisions and stopped old schooling it all the time.  The Broncos liked their odds better in OT than playing for the moment.  On this day, being risk adverse did not do them any favors.

The games 

I predicted that the Falcons would get out on the Hawks and that Seattle would rally but fall short.  In actuality Atlanta got out bigger than I expected and the Seattle rally did not fall short as the Hawks actually took a lead with 34 seconds to go.  Where Atlanta used a dominant run game to take a 20-0 halftime lead, Seattle controlled the second half with Wilson finding open spaces in the mid range passing game. 

In the end the Hawks will regret a couple of things all the way to next season.  First they were inside the Atlanta ten-yard line twice in the first half and came away with zero points (stopped once on fourth down and ran out of time with poor game management at the end of the first half).  Second, sometimes teams score too fast.  Seattle had timeouts in their pocket when they scored the go-ahead TD.  I know you score when you can - -but scoring on second down rather than first down might have chewed up enough time to negate a Falcon end of game opportunity.  That is what makes hindsight the national pass time of a losing team's fans.

A great game - a classic ending - Grade A

Texans/Patriots

Houston played a game first half and trailed by just 17-13 at intermission.  Then the Patriots took the ball right down the field on the first drive of the second half and laid down the law.  Matt Schaub started a drive and had the Texans inside the Patriot 35-yard line when they smartly picked him off.  Of course they turned the turnover into a quick six and presto it is 31-13 - game over.  New England is so efficient on offense that they didn't even seem to sweat in running up 41 points.  They did lose the Gronk for the rest of the playoffs and that can hurt them.  Plus, the Ravens seem to play the Pats better than any other team does on a consistent basis.  Still, I hope to see them in the Big Game (again)

Only because New England makes it look so easy do I downgrade the game to a Grade B