NFL RECAP – WEEK TWELVE
STATE OF THE GAME
For all the "any given
Sunday" rhetoric (and I have been one of those using such rhetoric)
regarding parity in the NFL, I can't remember a season where there has been
less across the board suspense in the divisional races. Let's take a look:
AFC East - The Patriots are
the only team over 500 and have a three-game lead with five to play.
AFC North - The Ravens have a
three game lead over both the Bengals and the Steelers. These three teams each have a game left with
the other two. That likely means they
beat up on each other a little and nobody makes up or loses any ground.
AFC South - The Texans have a
three game lead over the surprising Colts and they will stay sharp until they
secure home field for the playoffs.
AFC West - The Broncos are
the only team over 500 and own a four game lead with five games to play. Since the Broncos have already defeated the
4-7 Chargers twice, they need simply to win one more game (or have the Chargers
and Raiders each lose one more game) to clinch the division.
NFC West - Niners with a 2.5
game lead over the Hawks and a head-to head victory over Seattle. The Hawks can't win on the road so this race
is over.
NFC East - Giants with a
two-game lead over Washington and Dallas.
The race could get interesting if Washington beats New York at home this
week - but I don't think that will happen.
NFC South - Falcons have a
four game lead over the Bucs and are a lock to clinch the crown.
NFC North - The one
legitimate race with the flawed 8-3 Bears leading the flawed 7-4 Packers by one
game and the flawed 6-5 Vikings by two games.
As with their cousins in the AFC North - each of these three teams still
has one game left against the other two.
5-10 MUSINGS FROM THE GAMES
In the NFC - Three
After this week's games I am
of the opinion that there are only three teams in the NFC that have a realistic
shot to represent the conference in the Super Bowl. Those three teams are Atlanta, New York, and
San Francisco. My reasoning: The other three teams will be a long shot
wildcard, Green Bay, and Chicago.
Dallas, Seattle, Tampa Bay and Minnesota would not be capable of winning three
road games in the playoffs if they secured the last wildcard spot. Both Green Bay and Chicago would have to
likely beat one or both of New York and San Francisco to reach the Super
Bowl. I don't think either of these
teams can protect their quarterbacks consistently against the superior pass
rushes the Giants and Niners possess.
In the AFC - Three
I am also of the opinion that
only three teams in the AFC have a chance to represent the conference in the
Super Bowl. Those three teams are
Houston, New England, and Denver. My
rationale is as follows. First, neither
of the two wild cards from the AFC will pose a realistic threat. The two wild cards will likely come from the
trio of the Bengals, Steelers, and Colts.
Each of those teams has the ability to pull off an upset and win one
game in the playoffs, but I don't see any of them pulling off three road upsets.
The Ravens, Patriots and
Broncos will likely slug it out for the second seed. The Ravens hold a game lead over the Broncos
and the Patriots and have already beaten the Patriots and play the Broncos in
week 15. The Patriots have defeated the
Broncos and appear to have the easiest remaining schedule of the three. If the
Broncos beat the Ravens it will be quite a scramble for the second seed.
I think that the Broncos and the Patriots are more balanced and dangerous teams right now than the Ravens. I just don't see the Ravens beating two of
the Texans, Patriots, or Broncos in back-to-back weeks, which is what they will
likely need to do even if they secure the number two seed.
Signs of Life
For the second week in a row
the Jacksonville Jaguars showed some offensive firepower. Last week they lost in overtime to the Texans
and this week they secured a victory over the Titans. Chad Henne
looks like Dan Marino and Joe Montana combined compared to Blaine
Gabbert. The Jags are getting big plays from
suddenly frisky wideouts. Should be
interesting this off-season to see how the Jaguars deal with the Gabbert
dilemma. Did he show enough progress
this year to be the guy next year? Is
Henne a viable alternative? Do they dare
draft a new "the guy" as they will likely have a high pick again this
year?
No Excuses X2
I don't know what was worse
in the Detroit game against Houston on the infamous "was he down"
play. The officials missed an easy
call. I saw the play in a speed watch
mode and it was clear to me he was down.
So first we miss an easy call.
Then a silly rule means we can't correct the missed call even though we
know it is wrong. There is simply no
excuse in the replay age for getting a big call wrong, a call in this case that
likely changed the outcome of the game.
I don't fault Lion Coach Jim Schwartz for this in the least. Yes, he should have had better command of
this stupid rule. However, the only
reason the rule came up at all is that the officials failed to make the clearly
correct call.
The NFL has adopted a posture
that encourages officials to let them play on when there is doubt in these
situations. Personally I think that
impinges the integrity of the game. The
mindset should be "get the call right". What's next - hide the ball under the shirt
plays?
Bigger Wreck?
There seem to be more teams than
normal this year that fit the profile of a big ol' train wreck. These are teams that we thought would be
good or that we thought would show big improvement.
In some cases these are teams that we thought would contend for playoff
spots. So who are the biggest train
wrecks from among the Bills, Jets, Raiders, Chiefs, Chargers, Lions, Eagles,
Cowboys, and Saints?
Lets eliminate the
pretenders. The Raiders, Chargers, and
Cowboys fall into the bucket of teams we have learned to not expect much
from. I think we could see the train
coming in the case of the Saints and the Jets given the level of dysfunction
that followed them into the season. The
Bills? They spent a lot of money but I
don't think there is any great shock that they will be watching the playoffs
from home. The Lions were a playoff team
last year and have rarely played like a playoff team this year. They would be a candidate in any other year.
My big wreck award goes to
the Eagles and the Chiefs. The Chiefs
have brought ineptitude to a new high ( or low). They lose.
They lose badly. They lose at
home badly. They don't score very much. They don't have an NFL caliber QB on their
roster. Many picked them to win the AFC
West. Instead they will likely pick
first in the draft.
The Eagles 3-1 start included wins over the Ravens and the Giants.
They have not won a game since that 3-1 start. Andy Reid is as good as gone. I can't see the Eagles picking up Vick's
contract for next year. Last year a
former player labeled this team the Dream Team.
No dream to nightmare catchphrase from me. I like to think our level of discourse is better than that. They are a big ol' train wreck
though.
Harbaugh looks Smart
I loved the gutsy call Jim
Harbaugh made in switching to Colin Kaepernick at QB - though I questioned the
wisdom of the move. Kaepernick played
solidly on the road in New Orleans as San Francisco won largely behind the stellar
play of its defense. Kaepernick showed
enough flashes that you can see the extra "it" he brings to the table
compared to Alex Smith. Harbaugh now has
the chance to refine the offense under Kaepernick for the rest of the
season. If the Niner offense can meet
the Niner defense halfway, they become the favorites in the NFC.
You Can Go Home Again
Carson Palmer returned to
Cincinnati for the first time since orchestrating his departure with a faux
retirement. Curiously, nobody in Bengal
land misses him. Ok, it isn't so
curious. The Bengals have a capable QB
in Andy Dalton and they plundered quite a booty from the desperate Raiders when
they traded Palmer last year. The
matchup yesterday wasn't really Dalton vs Palmer. The matchup was a young Bengal team on the rise
vs a funky Raider team that year after year seems to lack identity and
direction. The 3-8 Raiders need to run
the table to match last year's disappointing result.
The Raiders have a lot of
work to do just to return to mediocrity.
WEEKLY AWARDS
MVP
The San Francisco Forty
Niners defense scored two touchdowns on interception returns in the 31-21 win
in New Orleans. The Niner rush also
sacked Saint QB Drew Brees five times.
The constant pressure prevented Brees from setting and throwing any deep
passes, effectively eliminating the Saints ability to rally from a two-score
deficit.
EL BUSTO
Sighhh. I held my tongue (keyboard) until now, but
how can I let pass the latest novel way the Chargers found to snare defeat from
the jaws of victory. There they were
leading the Ravens 13-10 late in the game.
The clock was winding down and the Ravens faced a last gasp fourth and
29. Yes, you read that right - fourth
and 29.
Under pressure Ravens QB Joe Flacco dumps a pass off to Ray Rice in
the flat near the right sideline. Rice
then proceeds to scamper all the way to the numbers on the left side of the
field, turn downfield, and secure the first down (or darn close to it - but if
you let a guy get 28.5 yards on fourth and 29 don't expect any breaks on the spot). The Ravens kick a FG to force overtime and
win 16-13. Charger D - for finding yet
another creative loss technique -- this busto is for you.
SURPRISE-SURPRISE-SURPRISE
This week's Jim Neighbor's
award goes to the Saints, Packers, and Bears offensive lines. Yes, I know none of these O lines are among
the league's best. I was nevertheless
surprised at their total futility in recent losses. Last Monday Night the Bears had no answer for
the Niners. Sunday afternoon the Niners
did it to the Saints. Drew Bress might
as well have been Heath Shuler for the time he had to look downfield. Sunday Night the Giants looked like they were
doing wind sprints to see who could get to Aaron Rogers first. The Saints won't make the playoffs. The Packers and Bears will not get far with
those lines.
TREASURE OF THE WEEK
The Falcons edged the
Buccaneers 24-23 behind the passing combo of Ryan to Jones and a defense that
largely held rookie sensation Doug Martin in check. The win cemented the Falcons hold on the
division and put a dent in the Bucs playoff drive.
TRASH OF THE WEEK
Let's see -- the Steelers
lose eight turnovers and still have a chance to win the game (another sketch
call on a non turnover late in the game sealed their fate). One team turns the ball over eight times -
-bad. The other team gets eight
turnovers and still can't put the game away - -bad. Steelers and Browns add to the landfill this
week.
