Thursday, November 1, 2012

NFL By the Numbers - Run Vs Pass


NFL BY THE NUMBERS
RUN VS PASS TRENDS

In the last ten years - -actually more like the last three years - NFL teams have picked up the passing pace.  From 2002-2011, the league average for rushing yards has been almost frozen in time.  The average yards per game per team on the ground during that period is 116, and the range is 111 yards per game average in 2007 to 118 yards per game average in 2003.  Meanwhile, teams averaged 230 yards passing per game in 2011, versus 200 yards per game in 2003.

Notably, a team's running prowess seems to have little bearing on its ability to win the ultimate Super Bowl Prize.  The teams that won the Super Bowl over the last ten years have on average finished in the bottom half of the league in yards rushing per game.  During that same period Super Bowl winners were on average the 11th best passing team.
The Passing emphasis is most pronounced the last three years with the Super Bowl winner finishing in the top five each year in passing yards per game.

Interestingly, to me anyway, no Super Bowl winner in the last ten yards led the league in either passing or rushing.  The 2006 Colts finished second in the league in passing yards per game.  The 2009 Saints were the most balanced Super Bowl winner, finishing sixth in the league in rushing and fourth in passing.  Last year's Super Bowl winners, the Giants, finished dead last in rushing yards per game.  So, if you want to win the Super Bowl, fire up that passing game and draft running backs in the sixth round.

Rush Yds
Rush Yds
Rank
Pass Yds
Pass Yds
Rank
Total Yds
Total Yds
Year
NFL Avg
SB Champ
SB Champ
NFL Avg
SB Champ
SB Champ
NFL Avg
SB Champ
2002 - Bucs
116
97
27
212
215
15
328
312
2003 - Patriots
118
100
27
200
214
9
318
314
2004 - Patriots
117
133
7
210
224
11
327
357
2005 - Steelers
113
138
5
203
183
24
316
321
2006  - Colts
117
110
18
204
269
2
321
379
2007 - Giants
111
134
4
214
197
21
325
331
2008 - Steelers
116
106
23
211
206
17
327
312
2009- Saints
117
131
6
218
272
4
335
403
2010 - Packers
115
100
24
221
257
5
336
357
2011 - Giants
117
89
32
230
296
5
347
385
Ten Year Average
115.7
113.8
17.3
212.3
233.3
11.3
328
347.1

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