NFL Predictions - Conference Championships

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES

XENA AND TANNER CHEW ON THE PLAYOFF GAMES

Ravens@Patriots - In week three the Ravens held New England to 77 yards rushing and rolled up 500 yards of offense as they rallied to beat the Patriots 31-30 at home.  That seems like a long time ago.  Since that time the Patriots have developed a better than average running game and the Ravens have been suspect against the run.  I think the game hinges on whether the Ravens can control the New England ground game.  If they can't, the versatility of the Patriot attack will be too much for the Ravens.  At home, the Patriots will run the Ravens ragged if the Ravens can't make the Pats one dimensional.  So, we will either get a close game like last year where the Ravens control the pace, or the Patriots will  burn the birds off the field.  The Ravens won't give up two special teams scores this week, but they also won't get the deep bomb gifts that the Broncos handed them last week.  Simply put, I think the Patriot offense will be the dominant force on the field and the Raven offense will not be able to make the same kind of big plays that they made to defeat Denver.

Patriots 34-17

Niners@Falcons - My gut tells me that Atlanta will win this game.  The Falcons play much more zone than Green Bay and that will negate some of the big play runs by Kaepernick.  Good passing teams have burned the Niners on occasion.  The key for the Falcons will be to stay aggressive early and to give Matty Ice time to throw.  My head tells me that the Niners will not fall short again.  Some times good young teams need to experience getting close to know what it takes to get over the hump.  My head says the Niner D will make the crucial stops it needs to keep the game close and that the Niners will wear down the Falcons in the second half.  I will go with my head.  Niners 28-23.

  

NFL - Conference Championships - The Best Game that Never was

NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

The Best Game that Never Was

In a little over 24 hours we will know the two teams that will compete in the Super Bowl.  I have ranked the four possible matchups based on my personal sense of "intrigue":

Patriots and Niners

Ravens and Niners

Ravens and Falcons

Patriots and Falcons

The Niners and Pats played already this season.  The Pats rallied from 28 points back to tie the game.  The Niners answered with a big play to claim victory.  A rematch would give us the Golden Boy Brady against the rising star Kaepernick.  We would get the aloof Hoodie against the risk-taking Harbaugh.  We would get the Patriot offensive Machine against the league's most complete defense.  I want to see that.

A Ravens/Niners game would give us the Brother's Harbaugh game we almost saw last year.  The family storyline here would be epic.  The teams play physical, hardnosed football, but the Niners would bring the Kaeprnick wrinkle.

These first two options are very close in my ranking of game sex appeal.  It would be a steep drop to Ravens/Falcons, but the differences in style would be somewhat interesting.  The Patriots and the Falcons have similar features to me. New England is just better and more accomplished. 

I have learned over the years though that the conference championships have their own storylines and sometimes the surprises leave us with unexpected and disappointing matchups.

During the 1985 season the Chicago Bears steamrolled to a 15-1 record.  They started the season 12-0.  The Miami Dolphins ambushed them in a week 13 Monday Night game, 38-24.  Miami preserved the 1972 Dolphin perfect season legacy with the win.  The Bears dominated the NFC playoff shutting out the Giants in the divisional round and the Rams in the conference championship.

The Miami Dolphins won the AFC East and defeated Cleveland in the divisional round of the AFC playoffs.  Miami faced New England at home in the AFC championship.  The Dolphins were the betting and the popular favorite.  All football fans not in New England wanted to see the Bears and the Dolphins in a rematch.  The Dolphins had ruined Chicago's perfect season.  The physical Bears against the finesses Dolphins presented contrasting styles.  Coach Ditka vs Coach Shula would present another contrast:  Ditka brash and frank, Shula the gentlemanly coaching legend.

All Miami had to do was win.  We sometimes forget though that the other team wants to win as well.  The traveling Patriots won their third straight playoff game as they dominated the Dolphins 31-14.  New England rushed for 260 yards and forced six Dolphin turnovers.  I hated the Patriots for ruining the dream game.  Then I hated them more when they played Michal Spinks to Chicago's Mike Tyson in losing the Super Bowl 46-10.

The lesson:  The conference championship games favor the teams that stay in the moment.  The four teams that get this far are all worthy of making it to the Super Bowl.  The teams that best prepare to execute their game against a high quality opponent will get one more game.  As fans it is OK to look ahead.  We risk disappointment though if the favorites on the field are doing the same. 

NFL Recap - Sunday Divisional Round

NFL RECAP – DIVISION ROUND - SUNDAY

The More things Change

The NFL divisional round is over and it is on to the conference championships.  The NFL had many intriguing new story lines this year:

Ø RG3, Russell Wilson, Adrian Peterson and Andrew Luck lead their teams into the playoffs

Ø The 49ers make a mid season QB shift at a time when they were leading their division

Ø The defending SB champion Giants start strong, slump and miss the playoffs

Ø Peyton Manning leads Broncos to #1 AFC seed only to lose in playoffs - again.

Ø Chargers and Cowboys continue to disappoint and miss the playoffs

Ø The Detroit Lions and New Orleans Saints take huge steps - backwards

I could go on and on.  Much happened in the NFL this year.  Yet when all the dust has settled the remaining combatants have a familiar look:

New England will once again host Baltimore in the AFC Championship game.  San Francisco again makes the conference finals and will face the Falcons in Atlanta for the NFC crown.  The NFL season grinds down the pretenders and the playoffs punish those who were not quite ready (Seattle, Indy) sloppy (Denver, Green Bay), have injuries at QB (Washington, Minnesota) or just overmatched (Houston, Cincy).

The Ravens may be the sentimental favorite as Ray Lewis makes his last stand.  The Patriots appear to be playing the best and we hate them because they always are playing the best.  The Falcons we keep counting out and they are still here.  The Niners intrigue us because we see Kaepernick emerging.  Me, I am rooting for a Pats/Niners cage match.

Prospect Theory and the NFL

There is a concept in prospect theory that says people value avoiding loss more than making gains.  A person who views a potential action as exposing himself to risk is less likely to take that action than is a person that sees that action as only creating a gain opportunity.

A simple example of this concept played out at the end of the Ravens/Broncos game and the Hawks/Falcons game.  In Denver the Ravens had just tied the game at 35.  The Broncos had possession at their 20-yard line with two timeouts and 31 seconds remaining.  Peyton Manning took a knee and the Broncos headed to OT where they lost to the Ravens 38-35.

In Atlanta, the Seahawks had just scored to take a 28-27 lead.  Atlanta took possession with 31 seconds to go and two timeouts near their 30-yard line.  Matt Ryan completes two passes and the Falcons use 23 seconds to kick the game-winning 49-yard field goal.

So why didn't the Broncos try to win the game in regulation?  Like the Falcons the Broncos had an all-pro QB capable of moving a team 40 yards in 31 seconds with two timeouts.  The Broncos kicker Matt Praeter is one of the game's best kickers from 50 yards and beyond.  So why did the Broncos settle for overtime?

I submit that the Broncos were more concerned with what could go wrong (loss) in this scenario than they were with gain (winning the game in regulation and avoiding the serendipity of OT).  The Falcons, conversely, had nothing to lose since they were trailing.  They could afford to throw caution to the wind and use the remaining time since they could only gain from this risk.

I don't know what the odds are in these types of situations.  I do wish that NFL coaches made more a study of the statistics of their decisions and stopped old schooling it all the time.  The Broncos liked their odds better in OT than playing for the moment.  On this day, being risk adverse did not do them any favors.

The games 

I predicted that the Falcons would get out on the Hawks and that Seattle would rally but fall short.  In actuality Atlanta got out bigger than I expected and the Seattle rally did not fall short as the Hawks actually took a lead with 34 seconds to go.  Where Atlanta used a dominant run game to take a 20-0 halftime lead, Seattle controlled the second half with Wilson finding open spaces in the mid range passing game. 

In the end the Hawks will regret a couple of things all the way to next season.  First they were inside the Atlanta ten-yard line twice in the first half and came away with zero points (stopped once on fourth down and ran out of time with poor game management at the end of the first half).  Second, sometimes teams score too fast.  Seattle had timeouts in their pocket when they scored the go-ahead TD.  I know you score when you can - -but scoring on second down rather than first down might have chewed up enough time to negate a Falcon end of game opportunity.  That is what makes hindsight the national pass time of a losing team's fans.

A great game - a classic ending - Grade A

Texans/Patriots

Houston played a game first half and trailed by just 17-13 at intermission.  Then the Patriots took the ball right down the field on the first drive of the second half and laid down the law.  Matt Schaub started a drive and had the Texans inside the Patriot 35-yard line when they smartly picked him off.  Of course they turned the turnover into a quick six and presto it is 31-13 - game over.  New England is so efficient on offense that they didn't even seem to sweat in running up 41 points.  They did lose the Gronk for the rest of the playoffs and that can hurt them.  Plus, the Ravens seem to play the Pats better than any other team does on a consistent basis.  Still, I hope to see them in the Big Game (again)

Only because New England makes it look so easy do I downgrade the game to a Grade B

NFL Recap - Saturday Divisional Round

NFL RECAP – DIVISION ROUND - SATURDAY

Didn't I say this was the best weekend in sports.  OK, I am a Bronco fan, so the Raven loss stung a bit - -but what a game.  And the 49ers dismantling of the Packers?  I have NEVER seen a quarterback do what Kaepernick did in a playoff game.

A Tale of Two Coaches

John Fox is conservative.  Jim Harbaugh thinks out of the box.  As we dissect the games from yesterday we see that the fates smiled on the calculated risk taker (Harbaugh) and sent the decision-making weenie (Fox) home.  To be sure there were many instances where the Broncos did not make key plays that could have locked down the win.  In the end, though, decisions to give the Ravens another chance at the two-minute warning, and to walk meekly into OT - did not pan out.  (In fairness Manning says he audibled to a run in the play after the two-minute warning).

http://scottfowlerobs.blogspot.com/2013/01/john-foxs-conservatism-helps-broncos.html

Meanwhile, Harbaugh turns Kaepernick all the way loose.  Let's not forget the huge risk Harbaugh took when he replaced the steady Alex Smith with the inexperienced Kaepernick.  Smith was playing well, but Harbaugh sensed he needed more electric play capability from the QB position if the Niners were to win the big prize.  I sensed this too as I noted in my week seven recap when I suggested the move several weeks before Harbaugh made it (just bragging a little):

http://nfltherapyjobsearch.blogspot.com/2012/10/nfl-week-seven-recap.html

It is one thing for a fan blogger to suggest a QB change, it is another for a head coach to take the risk when his current QB is doing well and coming off his best season.

Kaepernick threw an early pick six against the Packers and more than a few people probably clinched their teeth and hoped Harbaugh would come to his senses and insert the veteran Smith.  Harbaugh stuck to his guns and Kaepernick made history. 

My take away was rather predictable.  Harbaugh coached to win.  Fox coached not to lose and not to get second-guessed.  News flash John.  When you lose we will second guess.

Tale of the QBs

Great QB matchups yesterday as well.  In the AFC the HOF Manning vs the oft-maligned Flacco.  In the NFC the reigning MVP Rogers against the unknown Kaepernick.  I think it fair to say that Flacco got the best of Manning and Kaepernick got the best of everybody.

 Flacco made the big plays when he needed them, and overcame several key drops by his receiving corps.  People will remember his three long touchdown throws, but I thought his best play was a twenty-five yard connection on third and 13 from his own three in OT.  That play bought the Ravens field position that they would ultimately turn into the winning field goal after a Manning Interception.

Manning once again came up short in the playoffs in a game he was supposed to win.  He turned the ball over three times resulting in 17 Raven points (a pick six, a 37-yard TD drive after a fumble, and the winning field goal).  The first two turnovers were "in the line of battle" mistakes that happen in a football game.  The last interception was a poor pass and a poorer decision. 

Kaepernick gave the most entertaining QB performance I have seen in quite some time, maybe ever.  With all due credit to the work of Russell Wilson and RG3, he looked like a more polished version of them last night.  Rifle throws, touch passes, great ball fakes, line reads, and incredible running instincts.  I know he has not done this week to week, but the potential that he might is scary for Niner foes. 

Aaron Rogers played a solid game.  Not often do you say a rival QB just pure out-talented Aaron Rogers, but that happened last night.

The Games

Ravens/Broncos

Let's see.  The game was tied at 7, 14, 21, 28, 35 and needed a second overtime.  Joe Flacco completes three long TD strikes, the last a miracle 70 yarder to force OT.  Trindon Holliday opens the first half scoring with a 90- yard punt return touchdown and the second half scoring with a 104-yard kickoff return TD.  Ray Lewis leads both teams in tackles and Ray Rice picks up 130 punishing yards.  Peyton Manning tosses three TDs but turns the ball over three times.  There are enough controversial official calls and coaching decisions to keep the second-guessers busy until next September (longer if you are a Bronco fan).  The Ravens come away with another tough road playoff victory.  Grade - A+

Packers at Niners

Many expected this to be the weekend's most compelling game.  Though the Niners were dominating the stats, the Packers had tied the game at 24 early in the third quarter.  Then Colin Kaepernick and the Niner offense shifted into high gear and left the Packers in their wake.  The Niner pass rush forced Rogers into tough throws on the run and the Packers just could not keep pace.  I loved the Niner game plan that took full advantage of the aggressive play of Clay Matthews with the read option game.  Kaepernick played a game for the ages.  -- Grade - A