NFL BY THE NUMBERS
Turnover Differential
It is a common adage today
that the statistic that best predicts wins and losses is turnover
advantage. Indeed over the last ten
years, the NFC leader in turnover differential has missed the playoffs only
twice and the AFC leader has only missed the playoffs once. Interestingly, the 2011 Patriots were the
only AFC turnover champ to make the Super Bowl, which they lost to the
Giants. In the NFC the 2006 Bears and
the 2002 Bucs are the only turnover champs to make the Super Bowl. The Bucs are the only turnover margin champ from
either conference to win the Super Bowl over the last ten years.
What does this tell us? Likely that teams that excel in turnover
differential can mask deficiencies during the regular season and turn average
teams into playoff participants.
However, come playoff time, with a higher level of competition, the
regular season turnover magic fades.
NFC
|
|||||||
Year
|
Team
|
Margin
|
Finish
|
||||
2011
|
Niners
|
+28
|
Lost NFC Finals
|
||||
2010
|
Falcons
|
+14
|
Lost Divisional Round
|
||||
2009
|
Packers
|
+24
|
Lost Wild Card Round
|
||||
2008
|
Giants
|
+9
|
Lost Divisional Round
|
||||
2007
|
Bucs
|
+15
|
Lost Wild Card Round
|
||||
2006
|
Bears
|
+13
|
Lost Super Bowl
|
||||
2005
|
Panthers
|
+12
|
Lost NFC Finals
|
||||
2005
|
Giants
|
+12
|
Lost Wild Card Round
|
||||
2004
|
Panthers
|
+12
|
Missed Playoffs
|
||||
2003
|
Niners
|
+12
|
Missed Playoffs
|
||||
2002
|
Bucs
|
+17
|
Won Super bowl
|
||||
2002
|
Packers
|
+17
|
Lost Wild Card Round
|
||||
AFC
|
|||||||
Year
|
Team
|
Margin
|
Finish
|
||||
2011
|
Patriots
|
+17
|
Lost Super Bowl
|
||||
2010
|
Patriots
|
+28
|
Lost Divisional Round
|
||||
2009
|
Ravens
|
+10
|
Lost Divisional Round
|
||||
2008
|
Dolphins
|
+17
|
Lost Wild Card Round
|
||||
2007
|
Chargers
|
+24
|
Lost AFC Finals
|
||||
2006
|
Ravens
|
+15
|
Lost Divisional Round
|
||||
2005
|
Bengals
|
+25
|
Lost Wild Card Round
|
||||
2004
|
Colts
|
+19
|
Lost Divisional Round
|
||||
2003
|
Chiefs
|
+19
|
Lost Divisional Round
|
||||
2002
|
Chiefs
|
+12
|
Missed playoffs
|
||||
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